Evaluation of Comprehensive Benefits of Electric Energy Substitution in Regional Power Grids Based on Improved Cloud Model

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.23142

Abstract

Abstract:

Objectives To address issues such as insufficient multi-dimensional coordination, incomplete quantification of environmental benefits, and the lack of dynamic feedback in evaluating the benefits of electric energy substitution in regional power grids, a dynamic evaluation method based on multi-source data fusion is proposed to enhance the decision-making accuracy of electric energy substitution projects. Methods A three-dimensional evaluation index system covering “supply-side optimization, demand-side transformation, and environmental emission reduction synergy” is established, identifying 21 indicators including cross-regional consumption capacity, electric substitution penetration rate, and pollutant reduction, thereby forming a multi-level quantitative evaluation framework. A coupling weighting strategy based on the entropy weight method and an improved rank correlation method is developed to balance subjective and objective weight deviations through linear weighting. A Bayesian dynamic cloud model is proposed, optimizing the hyper-entropy parameters of the cloud model by incorporating a Bayesian feedback mechanism to achieve dynamic correction of evaluation results. Results The proposed model can effectively quantify the comprehensive benefits of electric energy substitution, accurately identify shortcomings in cross-regional consumption and terminal substitution, and improve evaluation accuracy through the dynamic feedback mechanism, enhancing alignment with practical engineering. Conclusions This evaluation method overcomes the bottlenecks in traditional benefit evaluation, such as single-dimensional indicators, inaccurate weight allocation, and significant static deviations, providing a reference for improving the accuracy of electric energy substitution benefit evaluation.

Key words: new power system, new energy, low-carbon transition, carbon neutrality, regional power grid, electric energy substitution, Bayesian dynamic cloud model, comprehensive benefit evaluation, carbon emission

CLC Number:

TK 732

Yang ZHENG, Yucheng REN, Yuwei WANG, Dingji XU, Huimin YANG. Evaluation of Comprehensive Benefits of Electric Energy Substitution in Regional Power Grids Based on Improved Cloud Model[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2025, 46(2): 399-408.

Figures/Tables 10

References 29

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主要维度	一级指标	二级指标
供给侧效益A	清洁能源参与发电调度A₁	清洁能源发电占比A₁₁
	清洁能源参与发电调度A₁	清洁能源发电量增长率A₁₂
	跨省跨区电能替代A₂	清洁电外送电量占比A₂₁
	跨省跨区电能替代A₂	清洁电外送电量增长率A₂₂
	电力辅助服务A₃	新能源参与调峰电量占比A₃₁
	电力辅助服务A₃	新能源参与调峰电量增长率A₃₂
需求侧效益B	以电代气B₁	电采暖取代燃气取暖电量增长率B₁₁
	以电代气B₁	电锅炉取代燃气锅炉电量增长率B₁₂
	以电代油B₂	电动汽车增长率B₂₁
		岸电增长率B₂₂
		机井通电增长率B₂₃
	清洁能源B₃	清洁能源取代燃气取暖电量增长率B₃₁
	清洁能源B₃	清洁能源取代燃气锅炉电量增长率B₃₂
环境减排效益C	发电侧减排C₁	新能源并网投资比例C₁₁
	发电侧减排C₁	单位储能资产最大负荷供应能力C₁₂
	输配电减排C₂	低碳电力调度比例C₂₁
		电压合格率改善比率C₂₂
		六氟化硫减排比率C₂₃
	用电侧减排C₃	充电站电力消耗增长率C₃₁
		分布式电源电量增长率C₃₂
		需求侧总节约电量增长率C₃₃

主要维度	一级指标	二级指标
供给侧效益A	清洁能源参与发电调度A₁	清洁能源发电占比A₁₁
	清洁能源参与发电调度A₁	清洁能源发电量增长率A₁₂
	跨省跨区电能替代A₂	清洁电外送电量占比A₂₁
	跨省跨区电能替代A₂	清洁电外送电量增长率A₂₂
	电力辅助服务A₃	新能源参与调峰电量占比A₃₁
	电力辅助服务A₃	新能源参与调峰电量增长率A₃₂
需求侧效益B	以电代气B₁	电采暖取代燃气取暖电量增长率B₁₁
	以电代气B₁	电锅炉取代燃气锅炉电量增长率B₁₂
	以电代油B₂	电动汽车增长率B₂₁
		岸电增长率B₂₂
		机井通电增长率B₂₃
	清洁能源B₃	清洁能源取代燃气取暖电量增长率B₃₁
	清洁能源B₃	清洁能源取代燃气锅炉电量增长率B₃₂
环境减排效益C	发电侧减排C₁	新能源并网投资比例C₁₁
	发电侧减排C₁	单位储能资产最大负荷供应能力C₁₂
	输配电减排C₂	低碳电力调度比例C₂₁
		电压合格率改善比率C₂₂
		六氟化硫减排比率C₂₃
	用电侧减排C₃	充电站电力消耗增长率C₃₁
		分布式电源电量增长率C₃₂
		需求侧总节约电量增长率C₃₃

指标	模式1			模式2			模式3
指标	2019年	2020年	2021年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2019年	2020年	2021年
A₁₁	60.00	68.50	78.95	68.50	74.77	82.61	77.58	89.98	100.00
A₁₂	67.58	60.00	79.18	100.00	83.65	69.77	64.07	79.66	76.83
A₂₁	73.18	60.00	79.34	60.00	68.68	74.01	80.11	97.21	100.00
A₂₂	60.00	78.30	83.55	98.41	100.00	93.12	78.10	82.18	83.55
A₃₁	96.60	90.80	100.0o	62.75	60.00	70.22	72.25	76.76	80.56
A₃₂	60.00	100.00	77.11	69.95	7.61	99.00	90.05	98.81	81.19
B₁₁	75.93	82.29	100.00	60.00	62.75	65.73	87.34	93.30	99.37
B₁₂	60.00	66.17	72.17	87.99	94.65	76.70	75.83	82.54	100.00
B₂₁	76.70	86.76	99.94	72.53	89.74	100.00	60.00	67.48	74.23
B₂₂	97.66	100.0o	85.73	74.04	76.61	83.74	62.46	71.35	60.00
B₂₃	85.42	94.46	74.46	64.94	70.36	60.00	89.28	95.18	100.00
B₃₁	78.90	87.80	100.00	60.00	65.90	65.40	69.80	79.80	87.80
B₃₂	60.00	66.59	77.35	89.10	95.24	100.00	64.31	71.55	77.25
C₁₁	60.00	67.57	82.44	72.45	86.48	100.00	80.59	83.17	91.14
C₁₂	84.14	100.00	79.86	60.00	64.84	71.89	88.54	68.29	60.36
C₂₁	90.30	78.42	92.70	60.00	69.92	85.40	91.72	100.00	80.82
C₂₂	60.00	73.25	70.48	86.27	99.64	75.66	100.00	86.27	63.86
C₂₃	100.00	67.54	99.69	65.91	72.63	77.12	60.00	69.55	73.70
C₃₁	90.14	93.80	100.00	60.00	63.68	72.85	75.68	82.47	88.61
C₃₂	87.97	66.25	60.00	93.75	100.00	81.49	65.67	65.04	60.52
C₃₃	100.00	96.54	68.86	86.02	87.68	84.22	81.87	72.32	60.00

指标	模式1			模式2			模式3
指标	2019年	2020年	2021年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2019年	2020年	2021年
A₁₁	60.00	68.50	78.95	68.50	74.77	82.61	77.58	89.98	100.00
A₁₂	67.58	60.00	79.18	100.00	83.65	69.77	64.07	79.66	76.83
A₂₁	73.18	60.00	79.34	60.00	68.68	74.01	80.11	97.21	100.00
A₂₂	60.00	78.30	83.55	98.41	100.00	93.12	78.10	82.18	83.55
A₃₁	96.60	90.80	100.0o	62.75	60.00	70.22	72.25	76.76	80.56
A₃₂	60.00	100.00	77.11	69.95	7.61	99.00	90.05	98.81	81.19
B₁₁	75.93	82.29	100.00	60.00	62.75	65.73	87.34	93.30	99.37
B₁₂	60.00	66.17	72.17	87.99	94.65	76.70	75.83	82.54	100.00
B₂₁	76.70	86.76	99.94	72.53	89.74	100.00	60.00	67.48	74.23
B₂₂	97.66	100.0o	85.73	74.04	76.61	83.74	62.46	71.35	60.00
B₂₃	85.42	94.46	74.46	64.94	70.36	60.00	89.28	95.18	100.00
B₃₁	78.90	87.80	100.00	60.00	65.90	65.40	69.80	79.80	87.80
B₃₂	60.00	66.59	77.35	89.10	95.24	100.00	64.31	71.55	77.25
C₁₁	60.00	67.57	82.44	72.45	86.48	100.00	80.59	83.17	91.14
C₁₂	84.14	100.00	79.86	60.00	64.84	71.89	88.54	68.29	60.36
C₂₁	90.30	78.42	92.70	60.00	69.92	85.40	91.72	100.00	80.82
C₂₂	60.00	73.25	70.48	86.27	99.64	75.66	100.00	86.27	63.86
C₂₃	100.00	67.54	99.69	65.91	72.63	77.12	60.00	69.55	73.70
C₃₁	90.14	93.80	100.00	60.00	63.68	72.85	75.68	82.47	88.61
C₃₂	87.97	66.25	60.00	93.75	100.00	81.49	65.67	65.04	60.52
C₃₃	100.00	96.54	68.86	86.02	87.68	84.22	81.87	72.32	60.00

指标	权重值	指标	权重值
A₁₁	0.037	B₃₁	0.024
A₁₂	0.043	B₃₂	0.053
A₂₁	0.075	C₁₁	0.033
A₂₂	0.116	C₁₂	0.031
A₃₁	0.063	C₂₁	0.029
A₃₂	0.023	C₂₂	0.077
B₁₁	0.036	C₂₃	0.063
B₁₂	0.033	C₃₁	0.069
B₂₁	0.051	C₃₂	0.038
B₂₂	0.036	C₃₃	0.030
B₂₃	0.038