Analysis and Forecast of the Shift From Double Control of Energy Consumption to Double Control of Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.23171

Abstract

Abstract:

Objectives As a national energy base,the shift in energy policy in Xinjiang is of great significance to the realization of national energy strategy goals. The shift from controlling total amount and intensity of energy consumption to controlling total amount and intensity of carbon emissions in Xinjiang was investigated. Methods Two decoupling elasticity indexes of economic elasticity and energy consumption elasticity of carbon emissions were proposed, and the decoupling relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions in Xinjiang was predicted. Results It is found that Xinjiang has initially realized the relative decoupling of energy consumption and carbon emissions,and is expected to realize the absolute decoupling of energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2032. The shift in the dual-control index helps to improve the electrification level of end-use energy consumption in Xinjiang, but the pressure to maintain electricity supply increases. Conclusions The research results have guiding significance for energy policy making in Xinjiang and even the whole country, provide an empirical basis for realizing the goal of carbon neutrality, and also provide a reference for the transition path of other energy bases.

Key words: carbon peak, carbon neutrality, energy consumption, carbon emissions, dual control of energy consumption, dual control of carbon emissions, Xinjiang energy policy

CLC Number:

TK 01

Changling LI, Xiqiang CHANG, Hao LU. Analysis and Forecast of the Shift From Double Control of Energy Consumption to Double Control of Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2024, 45(6): 1114-1120.

Figures/Tables 3

References 22

1	董瑞，高林，何松，等．CCUS技术对我国电力行业低碳转型的意义与挑战[J]．发电技术，2022，43(4)：523-532． doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.22053
	DONG R， GAO L， HE S，et al ．Significance and challenges of CCUS technology for low-carbon transformation of China’s power industry[J]．Power Generation Technology，2022，43(4)：523-532． doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.22053
2	李汪繁，吴何来．双碳目标下我国碳市场发展分析及建议[J]．南方能源建设，2022，9(4)：118-126． doi:10.16516/j.gedi.issn2095-8676.2022.04.015
	LI W F， WU H L ．Analysis and suggestions for the development of carbon emissions trading markets in China under carbon peak and neutrality goals[J]．Southern Energy Construction，2022，9(4)：118-126． doi:10.16516/j.gedi.issn2095-8676.2022.04.015
3	单思珂，刘含笑，刘美玲，等．我国火电行业碳足迹评估综述[J/OL]．发电技术，2023：1-14．(2023-11-17)．．
	SHAN S K， LIU H X， LIU M L，et al ．Carbon footprint for thermal power industry in China：a review[J/OL]．Power Generation Technology，2023：1-14．(2023-11-17)．．
4	吴晓刚，唐家俊，吴新华，等．“双碳” 目标下虚拟电厂关键技术与建设现状[J]．浙江电力，2022，41(10)：64-71．
	WU X G， TANG J J， WU X H，et al ．Key technologies and present situation of virtual power plant under “dual-carbon” goals[J]．Zhejiang Electric Power，2022，41(10)：64-71．
5	傅旭，王莹玉，张雨津．新疆电网调峰需求及储能电源配置[J]．分布式能源，2022，7(5)：63-68．
	FU X， WANG Y Y， ZHANG Y J ．Peak regulating demand and energy storage power supply configuration of Xinjiang power grid[J]．Distributed Energy，2022，7(5)：63-68．
6	亢朋朋，王啸天，陈铨艺，等．考虑碳交易的综合能源系统在不同配置情景下的运行分析[J]．智慧电力，2023，51(4)：16-22． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-7598.2023.04.003
	KANG P P， WANG X T， CHEN Q Y，et al ．Operation analysis of integrated energy system considering carbon trading under different configuration scenarios[J]．Smart Power，2023，51(4)：16-22． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-7598.2023.04.003
7	许洪华，邵桂萍，鄂春良，等．我国未来能源系统及能源转型现实路径研究[J]．发电技术，2023，44(4)：484-491． doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.23002
	XU H H， SHAO G P， E C L，et al ．Research on China’s future energy system and the realistic path of energy transformation[J]．Power Generation Technology，2023，44(4)：484-491． doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.23002
8	胡珺，黄楠，沈洪涛．市场激励型环境规制可以推动企业技术创新吗？基于中国碳排放权交易机制的自然实验[J]．金融研究，2020(1)：171-189．
	HU J， HUANG N， SHEN H T ．Can market-incentive environmental regulation promote corporate innovation？ A natural experiment based on China’s carbon emissions trading mechanism[J]．Journal of Financial Research，2020(1)：171-189．
9	刘传明，孙喆，张瑾．中国碳排放权交易试点的碳减排政策效应研究[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2019，29(11)：49-58．
	LIU C M， SUN Z， ZHANG J ．Research on the effect of carbon emission reduction policy in China’s carbon emissions trading pilot[J]．China Population，Resources and Environment，2019，29(11)：49-58．
10	沈洪涛，黄楠，刘浪．碳排放权交易的微观效果及机制研究[J]．厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)，2017(1)：13-22．
	SHEN H T， HUANG N， LIU L ．A study of the micro-effect and mechanism of the carbon emission trading scheme[J]．Journal of Xiamen University (Arts & Social Sciences)，2017(1)：13-22．
11	余碧莹，赵光普，安润颖，等．碳中和目标下中国碳排放路径研究[J]．北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)，2021，23(2)：17-24．
	YU B Y， ZHAO G P， AN R Y，et al ．Research on China’s CO₂ emission pathway under carbon neutral target[J]．Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology (Social Sciences Edition)，2021，23(2)：17-24．
12	黄蕊，王铮，丁冠群，等．基于STIRPAT模型的江苏省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析及趋势预测[J]．地理研究，2016，35(4)：781-789．
	HUANG R， WANG Z， DING G Q，et al ．Trend prediction and analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Jiangsu Province based on STIRPAT model[J]．Geographical Research，2016，35(4)：781-789．
13	张腾飞，杨俊，盛鹏飞．城镇化对中国碳排放的影响及作用渠道[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2016，26(2)：47-57．
	ZHANG T F， YANG J， SHENG P F ．The impacts and channels of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in China[J]．China Population，Resources and Environment，2016，26(2)：47-57．
14	邵帅，张曦，赵兴荣．中国制造业碳排放的经验分解与达峰路径：广义迪氏指数分解和动态情景分析[J]．中国工业经济，2017(3)：44-63．
	SHAO S， ZHANG X， ZHAO X R ．Empirical decomposition and peaking pathway of carbon dioxide emissions of China’s manufacturing sector：generalized divisia index method and dynamic scenario analysis[J]．China Industrial Economics，2017(3)：44-63．
15	任晓松，刘宇佳，赵国浩．经济集聚对碳排放强度的影响及传导机制[J]．中国人口·资源与环境，2020，30(4)：95-106．
	REN X S， LIU Y J， ZHAO G H ．The impact and transmission mechanism of economic agglomeration on carbon intensity[J]．China Population，Resources and Environment，2020，30(4)：95-106．
16	中国建筑节能协会，重庆大学城乡建设与发展研究院．中国建筑能耗与碳排放研究报告(2022年)[J]．建筑，2023(2)：57-69． doi:10.3969/j.issn.0577-7429.2023.2.jz202302019
	China Association of Building Energy Efficiency，Institute of Urbanrural Construction and Development of Chongqing University ．Research report on building energy consumption and carbon emissions in China (2022)[J]．Construction and Architecture，2023(2)：57-69． doi:10.3969/j.issn.0577-7429.2023.2.jz202302019
17	王少剑，苏泳娴，赵亚博．中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异、空间溢出效应及影响因素[J]．地理学报，2018，73(3)：414-428． doi:10.11821/dlxb201803003
	WANG S J， SU Y X， ZHAO Y B ．Regional inequality，spatial spillover effects and influencing factors of China’s city-level energy-related carbon emissions[J]．Acta Geographica Sinica，2018，73(3)：414-428． doi:10.11821/dlxb201803003
18	李金铠，马静静，魏伟．中国八大综合经济区能源碳排放效率的区域差异研究[J]．数量经济技术经济研究，2020，37(6)：109-129．
	LI J K， MA J J， WEI W ．Study on regional differences of energy carbon emission efficiency in eight economic areas of China[J]．The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics，2020，37(6)：109-129．
19	汤芳，代红才，张宁，等．能耗双控向碳排放双控转变影响分析及推进路径设计[J]．中国电力，2023，56(12)：255-261．
	TANG F， DAI H C， ZHANG N，et al ．Effect analysis and promotion path design for transformation from energy consumption “dual control” to carbon “dual control”[J]．Electric Power，2023，56(12)：255-261．
20	粟世玮，张谦，熊炜，等．含高渗透可再生能源的动态网络重构与无功电压调整协同优化[J]．电网与清洁能源，2023，39(1)：100-110． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.01.014
	SU S W， ZHANG Q， XIONG W，et al ．Coordination optimization of dynamic network reconfiguration and reactive power voltage regulation with high penetration renewable energy generation[J]．Power System and Clean Energy，2023，39(1)：100-110． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.01.014
21	丁峰，李晓刚，梁泽琪，等．国外可再生能源发展经验及其对我国相关扶持政策的启示[J]．电力建设，2022，43(9)：1-11． doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.09.001
	DING F， LI X G， LIANG Z Q，et al ．Review of foreign experience in promoting renewable energy development and inspiration to China[J]．Electric Power Construction，2022，43(9)：1-11． doi:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2022.09.001
22	黎立丰，刘春晓，朱浩骏，等．考虑网络安全约束的可再生能源消纳能力评估方法[J]．电力科学与技术学报，2023，38(4)：162-168．
	LI L F， LIU C X， ZHU H J，et al ．Absorptive capability evaluation method of renewable energy considering security constraints of power grid[J]．Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology，2023，38(4)：162-168．

类别	电解铝	钢铁	多晶硅	煤制烯烃	再生铝	番茄加工
产品终端价格/(元/t)	14 450	3 677	55 000	8 200	19 000	6 000
产品原料成本/(元/t)	5 495	2 015	22 000	1 604.7	10 000	500
产品用电成本/(元/t)	4 495.5	500.0	21 645.0	432.9	216.0	60.0
产品总成本/(元/t)	11 700	2 792	44 300	6 210	15 000	4 800
税金及附加比重/%	10	10	10	10	10	10
各项期间费用比重/%	40	40	40	40	40	40
最低利润率/%	8	8	8	8	8	8
产品价格涨幅/%	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1
原材料价格涨幅/%	1	1	1	1	1	1
电价/[元/(kW⋅h)]	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9
产品利润率/%	9.52	12.03	9.73	12.13	10.53	10.00
利润率对售价敏感度	0.626 2	0.000 2	0.164 1	0.000 1	0.470 9	0.000 2
利润率对原料敏感度	-0.380	-0.548	-0.400	-0.196	-0.526	-0.083
利润率对电价敏感度	-0.311 1	-0.136 0	-0.393 5	-0.052 8	-0.011 4	-0.010 0
电价承受力/%	0.74	19.17	1.08	57.96	97.22	101.67
最高电价/[元/(kW⋅h)]	0.350	0.415	0.352	0.550	0.686	0.702

类别	电解铝	钢铁	多晶硅	煤制烯烃	再生铝	番茄加工
产品终端价格/(元/t)	14 450	3 677	55 000	8 200	19 000	6 000
产品原料成本/(元/t)	5 495	2 015	22 000	1 604.7	10 000	500
产品用电成本/(元/t)	4 495.5	500.0	21 645.0	432.9	216.0	60.0
产品总成本/(元/t)	11 700	2 792	44 300	6 210	15 000	4 800
税金及附加比重/%	10	10	10	10	10	10
各项期间费用比重/%	40	40	40	40	40	40
最低利润率/%	8	8	8	8	8	8
产品价格涨幅/%	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1	-1
原材料价格涨幅/%	1	1	1	1	1	1
电价/[元/(kW⋅h)]	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9	0.347 9
产品利润率/%	9.52	12.03	9.73	12.13	10.53	10.00
利润率对售价敏感度	0.626 2	0.000 2	0.164 1	0.000 1	0.470 9	0.000 2
利润率对原料敏感度	-0.380	-0.548	-0.400	-0.196	-0.526	-0.083
利润率对电价敏感度	-0.311 1	-0.136 0	-0.393 5	-0.052 8	-0.011 4	-0.010 0
电价承受力/%	0.74	19.17	1.08	57.96	97.22	101.67
最高电价/[元/(kW⋅h)]	0.350	0.415	0.352	0.550	0.686	0.702

[1]	Dongqing ZHANG, Tiezheng JIN, Lei ZHANG. Comprehensive Optimization of the Cold End of 1 000 MW Ultra-Supercritical Unit Based on Pump Frequency Conversion [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2024, 45(6): 1095-1104.
[2]	Tingting XIE, Youyuan SUN, Zhen GUO, Mingguang SONG. Summary of Research and Application of Continuous Monitoring Technology for Carbon Emissions From Thermal Power Units [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2024, 45(5): 919-928.
[3]	Ruowei WANG, Yinxuan LI, Weichun GE, Shitan ZHANG, Chuang LIU, Shuai CHU. Summary of Desert Photovoltaic Power Transmission Technology [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2024, 45(1): 32-41.
[4]	Daogang PENG, Jijun SHUI, Danhao WANG, Huirong ZHAO. Review of Virtual Power Plant Under the Background of “Dual Carbon” [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(5): 602-615.
[5]	Ning ZHANG, Hao ZHU, Lingxiao YANG, Cungang HU. Optimal Scheduling Strategy of Multi-Energy Complementary Virtual Power Plant Considering Renewable Energy Consumption [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(5): 625-633.
[6]	Haibin YU, Yuchen ZHANG, Yangyang LIU, Zengjie LU, Jinde WENG. Optimal Dispatching Bidding Strategy of Multi-Agent Virtual Power Plant Participating in Electricity Market Under Carbon Trading Mechanism [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(5): 634-644.
[7]	Rongrong ZHAI, Qing WEI, Lingjie FENG, Gexun SUN. Analysis of Energy Consumption Characteristics of Carbon Capture System in Coupled Membrane Condenser [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(5): 667-673.
[8]	Hanxiao LIU. Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Analysis of Electrostatic Precipitator Under Double Carbon Background [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(5): 738-744.
[9]	Donghui CAO, Dongmei DU, Qing HE. Summary of Hydrogen Energy Storage Safety and Its Detection Technology [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(4): 431-442.
[10]	Honghua XU, Guiping SHAO, Chunliang E, Jindong GUO. Research on China’s Future Energy System and the Realistic Path of Energy Transformation [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(4): 484-491.
[11]	Lianpeng ZHAO, Zhenyang ZHANG, Gang AN, Shenyin YANG. Progress in Hydrogen Liquefaction Technology With Mixed Refrigerant [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2023, 44(3): 331-339.
[12]	Rui DONG, Lin GAO, Song HE, Dongtai YANG. Significance and Challenges of CCUS Technology for Low-carbon Transformation of China’s Power Industry [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2022, 43(4): 523-532.
[13]	Huan ZHANG, Li WANG, Yi YE, Xinglei ZHAO. Study on CO₂ Absorbent of DETA and TEA Mixed Amine Solution [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2022, 43(4): 609-617.
[14]	Xiao YU, Guangquan BU, Shanshan WANG. Research on Transient AC Overvoltage Suppression Strategy of Islanded Wind Power Transmission via VSC-HVDC [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2022, 43(4): 618-625.
[15]	Weizhong FENG, Li LI. Research and Practice on Development Path of Low-carbon, Zero-carbon and Negative Carbon Transformation of Coal-fired Power Units Under “Double Carbon” Targets [J]. Power Generation Technology, 2022, 43(3): 452-461.