Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174

Abstract

Abstract:

Studying on new energy developing roadmap helps to provide the important reference for the formulation of medium and long-term development plan of new energy in China. This paper put forward a set of analysis methods and models of development roadmap involving resources evaluations, total capacity, developing sequences and layout according to energy development strategy and characteristics of new energy development in China. The wind, photovoltaic and photothermal power generation developing capacity sequences and layout in 2030 and 2050 were also studied. The results show that there will be a rapid speed for China's new energy development, pushing the new energy to become the dominated power after 2030. Wind power will be concentered in "Three North" areas, while the solar power presents a combination of centralized development and distributed utilization.

Key words: new energy, developing road map, developing capacity, developing sequence

CLC Number:

TK81
TM73

Guohui XIE, Nana LI, Bo YUAN. Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2020, 41(6): 631-637.

Figures/Tables 9

References 13

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区域		风电	光伏电站	分布式光伏	风电+光伏合计
三北	华北	124 193	121 541	20 035	265 769
	东北	82 844	5 160	8 706	96 710
	西北	124 444	373 543	8 772	506 759
	合计	331 481	500 244	37 513	869 238
东中部和南方	华中	7 063	2 397	35 073	44 533
	华东	3 151	2 278	23 385	28 814
	南方	9 370	1 478	17 410	28 258
	合计	19 584	6 152	75 868	101 604

区域		风电	光伏电站	分布式光伏	风电+光伏合计
三北	华北	124 193	121 541	20 035	265 769
	东北	82 844	5 160	8 706	96 710
	西北	124 444	373 543	8 772	506 759
	合计	331 481	500 244	37 513	869 238
东中部和南方	华中	7 063	2 397	35 073	44 533
	华东	3 151	2 278	23 385	28 814
	南方	9 370	1 478	17 410	28 258
	合计	19 584	6 152	75 868	101 604

发电类型	装机容量/亿kW	发电量/(亿kW·h)	折标煤量/亿t
水电	4.0	12 000	3.60
核电	1.0	7 000	2.10
风电	6.0	12 000	3.60
光伏发电	8.0	9 600	2.88
光热发电	0.2	700	0.21
生物质发电	0.5	2000	0.60

发电类型	装机容量/亿kW	发电量/(亿kW·h)	折标煤量/亿t
水电	4.0	12 000	3.60
核电	1.0	7 000	2.10
风电	6.0	12 000	3.60
光伏发电	8.0	9 600	2.88
光热发电	0.2	700	0.21
生物质发电	0.5	2000	0.60

发电类型	装机容量/亿kW	发电量/(亿kW·h)	折标煤量/亿t
水电	5.4	18 900	5.67
核电	2.2	15 400	4.62
风电	13.0	26 000	7.80
光伏发电	14.0	16 800	5.04
光热发电	1.0	3 500	1.05
生物质发电	1.0	4 000	1.20