基于SWOT及层次分析法的粤港澳大湾区氢能产业发展建议

发电技术

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基于SWOT及层次分析法的粤港澳大湾区氢能产业发展建议

陈佳睿¹，武佳璇¹，周国鹏²，康俊杰²，宋庆彬^1,3*

1．澳门科技大学创新工程学院，澳门特别行政区 999078； 2．中国华能集团有限公司能源研究院，北京市西城区 100031； 3.珠海澳科大科技研究院，广东省珠海市 519000

基金资助:
澳门特别行政区科学技术发展基金资助项目(0011/2023/AMJ)

Proposals for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on SWOT Analytical Method and Hierarchical Analysis Approach

CHEN Jiarui¹, WU Jiaxuan¹, ZHOU Guopeng², KANG Junjie², SONG Qingbin^1,3*

1.Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China; 2. Energy Research Institute, China Huaneng, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China) 3. Zhuhai MUST Science and Technology Research Institute, Zhuhai 519000, Guangdong Province, China

Supported by:
the Macao Special Administrative Region Science and Technology Development Fund (0011/2023/AMJ).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】粤港澳大湾区是我国氢能产业发展的重要战略区域，也是实现“双碳”目标的关键平台。为实现大湾区氢能产业高水平发展，加速构建全面的氢能产业评估体系，研究了影响大湾区氢能产业发展的主要因素并提出综合性建议，以推动其稳健发展。【方法】深入剖析了大湾区氢能产业的发展现状，采用SWOT分析框架与层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process，AHP)对大湾区氢能产业分布的影响因素进行了量化分析与深入研究。【结果】影响大湾区氢能产业发展的3个最重要指标为技术实力优势、市场需求增长、技术创新和合作机会。内部因素中，技术实力是大湾区氢能产业突出优势，权重值为0.48，而产业链不完整和技术水平不足是最大劣势，权重值均为0.36；外部因素中，市场需求的增长为大湾区氢能产业提供了机会，但替代能源多样性也成为了威胁大湾区氢能产业发展的最大阻碍。【结论】推动氢能技术创新发展、加大氢能产业协同合作、拓展氢能应用市场、加大政策扶持，将是有效推进大湾区氢能产业可持续发展的重要举措。

关键词: 双碳, 碳中和, 氢能, 能源转型, 粤港澳大湾区, 层次分析法, SWOT分析, 政策建议

Abstract: [Objectives] Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is an important strategic area for developing China’s hydrogen energy industry and a key platform for realizing the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”. In order to discover the high-level development of the hydrogen industry in the Greater Bay Area and accelerate the construction of a comprehensive hydrogen industry assessment system, this paper studies the major factors affecting the development of the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area and puts forward comprehensive recommendations to promote its robust growth. [Methods] The development status of the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area is deeply analyzed. The SWOT analysis framework and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are used to quantitatively analyze and deeply study the influencing factors of the distribution of the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area. [Results] The three most important indicators affecting the development of the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area are the advantages of technical strength, market demand growth, technological innovation and cooperation opportunities. Among the internal factors, technical strength is the prominent advantage of the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area, with a weight value of 0.48, while the incomplete industrial chain and insufficient technical level are the biggest disadvantages, with a weight value of 0.36. Among the external factors, the growth of market demand provides opportunities for the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area, but the diversity of alternative energy sources has also become the biggest obstacle threatening the development of the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area. [Conclusions] Promoting the development of hydrogen energy technology innovation, increasing the synergistic cooperation of the hydrogen energy industry, expanding the hydrogen energy application market, and increasing policy support will be the important measures to effectively promote the sustainable development of the hydrogen energy industry in the Greater Bay Area.

Key words: dual carbon, carbon neutrality, hydrogen energy, energy transformation, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, analytic hierarchy process, SWOT analysis, policy recommendations

陈佳睿, 武佳璇, 周国鹏, 康俊杰, 宋庆彬. 基于SWOT及层次分析法的粤港澳大湾区氢能产业发展建议[J]. 发电技术.

CHEN Jiarui, WU Jiaxuan, ZHOU Guopeng, KANG Junjie, SONG Qingbin. Proposals for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on SWOT Analytical Method and Hierarchical Analysis Approach[J]. Power Generation Technology.

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