Economic Analysis of Grid Parity of Centralized Photovoltaic Power Plants in Different Regions

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.24004

Abstract

Abstract:

Objectives Based on the background of photovoltaic power generation without policy subsidy parity, the comprehensive analysis of the economic feasibility of grid parity for centralized photovoltaic power stations can provide a reference for economic optimization. Methods The process of economic evaluation of centralized photovoltaic power station and the accurate calculation method of critical point are studied, that is, the programming recursive calculation is used to replace the traditional fitting curve method. This paper puts forward the judgment method of whether the photovoltaic power station can be put on the grid at par, that is, whether the feed-in price at the critical point is lower than the regional coal-fired benchmark price. Taking a 65.59 MW centralized photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang as an example, the economic analysis is carried out to verify whether the judgment method is reasonable. Results The algorithm enhances the accuracy of critical point calculations. Building upon this, an analysis of the overall situation and cost-effectiveness trends of grid parity in China is conducted. The findings suggest that centralized photovoltaic power stations in China can essentially achieve grid parity, with the central regions exhibiting the best economic benefits. Conclusions Using critical point analysis to determine if a power station can achieve grid parity will help assess the station’s resilience to risks, assist businesses in making informed decisions to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement.

Key words: photovoltaic power generation, centralized photovoltaic power station, grid parity, critical point, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, economic benefit, economic evaluation process

CLC Number:

TK 51

Xin GAO, Chizhong WANG, Fangxu GUI, Heng CHEN, Kai ZHANG, Guoqiang ZHANG. Economic Analysis of Grid Parity of Centralized Photovoltaic Power Plants in Different Regions[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2025, 46(5): 930-938.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Economic evaluation flow chart of centralized photovoltaic power generation project

Fig. 2 A photovoltaic module cost prediction case

Tab. 1 Basic parameters of a photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang

序号	基本参数	数值	序号	基本参数	数值
1	建设期/月	5	14	人工年平均工资/万元	18
2	项目运营期/a	25	15	运维费/(元/W)	0.048
3	直流装机容量/MW	65.59	16	固定资产残值/%	0
4	建设投资/万元	24 647.43	17	首年等效发电小时数/h	1 629.9
5	可抵扣税金/万元	2 376.06	18	投运首年衰减率/%	2
6	资本金基准收益率/%	6.5	19	第二年及以后逐年衰减率/%	0.45
7	全投资基准收益率(所得税前)/%	6.0	20	上网电价（含税）/[元/(kW·h）]	0.262
8	流动资金单位千瓦指标/[元/(kW·h)]	30	21	增值税税率/%	13
9	资本金占动态投资比例/%	30	22	企业所得税税率/%	25
10	长期贷款利率/%	4.0	23	城市维护建设税税率/%	5
11	短期贷款利率/%	3.7	24	教育费附加/%	5
12	预定还款期/a	15	25	土地租金/(万元/a)	146.3
13	管理人员数量/人	1	26	储能更换/万元	869.9

Tab. 2 Fitting curve method to analyze the critical point of electricity price

指标	基准值/%	拟合曲线	拟合程度	临界值/[元/(kW·h)]
全投资IRR	6.0	$y = 0.139 4 x + 6.249 1$	0.999 5	0.256 8
资本金IRR	6.5	$y = 0.272 1 x + 7.210 9$	0.999 4	0.254 7

Tab. 2 Fitting curve method to analyze the critical point of electricity price

指标	基准值/%	拟合曲线	拟合程度	临界值/[元/(kW·h)]
全投资IRR	6.0	$y = 0.139 4 x + 6.249 1$	0.999 5	0.256 8
资本金IRR	6.5	$y = 0.272 1 x + 7.210 9$	0.999 4	0.254 7

Tab. 3 Recursive programming method to analyze the critical point of electricity price

指标

基准值/%

变化量/

[元/(kW·h)]

变化幅度/%

临界值/

[元/(kW·h)]

Fig. 3 Electricity price analysis of a photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang

Tab. 4 China’s coal-fired benchmark electricity price in 2022

序号	地区	标杆电价/[元/(kW·h)]	序号	地区	标杆电价/[元/(kW·h)]
1	北京	0.359 8	17	河南	0.377 9
2	天津	0.365 5	18	湖北	0.416 1
3	河北	0.364 4	19	湖南	0.450 0
4	山西	0.332 0	20	重庆	0.396 4
5	山东	0.394 9	21	四川	0.401 2
6	蒙西	0.282 9	22	陕西	0.354 5
7	蒙东	0.303 5	23	甘肃	0.307 8
8	辽宁	0.375 7	24	青海	0.227 7
9	吉林	0.373 1	25	宁夏	0.259 5
10	黑龙江	0.374 0	26	新疆	0.250 0
11	上海	0.415 5	27	广东	0.453 0
12	江苏	0.391 0	28	广西	0.420 7
13	浙江	0.415 3	29	海南	0.429 8
14	安徽	0.384 4	30	贵州	0.351 5
15	福建	0.393 2	31	云南	0.335 8
16	江西	0.414 3	32	西藏	0.250 0

Fig. 4 Analysis of on-grid price of centralized photovoltaic power stations in different regions

Tab. 5 Analysis of parity access of centralized photovoltaic power station in China

地区	投资成本/(元/kW)	年利用小时数/h	LCOE/[元/(kW·h)]	综合电价/[元/(kW·h)]	燃煤标杆电价/[元/(kW·h)]
东部	4 506.54	1 139.50	0.364 1	0.399 9^a	0.402 2
中部	4 252.20	1 128.37	0.355 6	0.391 0	0.391 0
西部	4 275.73	1 531.31	0.252 0	0.291 0	0.285 0
地区	全投资IRR/%	资本金IRR/%	全投资IRR电价临界值/[元/(kW·h)]	资本金IRR电价临界值/[元/(kW·h)]
东部	6.01	6.74	0.397 8	0.397 4
中部	6.41	7.62	0.378 0	0.372 8
西部	6.25	7.09	0.257 0	0.256 8

References 27

[1]	国家发展和改革委员会．关于2021年新能源上网电价政策有关事项的通知[EB/OL]．(2021-06-07)[2024-01-03]．．
	National Development and Reform Commission ．Notice on matters related to the 2021 new energy grid electricity price policy[EB/OL]．(2021-06-07)[2024-01-03]．．
[2]	王驰中，高鑫，陈衡，等．中国各地区光伏发电平价上网成本效益综合分析[J]．可再生能源，2024，42(10)：1295-1301．
	WANG C Z， GAO X， CHEN H，et al ．Comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of photovoltaic power grid parity in various regions of China[J]．Renewable Energy Resources，2024，42(10)：1295-1301．
[3]	李靖，徐天奇，李琰，等．基于多市场耦合的新能源综合发电项目的盈利能力研究[J]．电力系统保护与控制，2024，52(6)：65-76．
	LI J， XU T Q， LI Y，et al ．Profitability study of multi-market coupled integrated renewable energy generation projects[J]．Power System Protection and Control，2024，52(6)：65-76．
[4]	鲁正，陈芸菲，孙炜．基于优化LCOE的光伏平价上网可行性分析[J]．太阳能学报， 2021， 42(8)： 153-158． doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2019-0571
	LU Z， CHEN Y F， SUN W ． Feasibility analysis of photovoltaic power to grid parity based on optimized lcoe model[J]． Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica， 2021， 42(8)： 153-158． doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2019-0571
[5]	任晓旭，王杰，朱小炜．从LCOE与电价关系角度实证研究光伏发电项目的平价上网路径[J]．太阳能， 2022(4)： 20-28．
	REN X X， WANG J， ZHU X W ． An empirical study on grid parity path of PV power generation projects from perspective of relationship between lcoe and electricity price[J]． Solar Energy， 2022(4)： 20-28．
[6]	宋越，王玉玮，苑曙光，等．光伏储能电站平价上网系统动力学分析模型[J]．电力系统及其自动化学报， 2022， 34(7)： 129-136．
	SONG Y， WANG Y W， YUAN S G， et al ． System dynamics analysis model of photovoltaic energy storage power station for grid parity[J]． Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA， 2022， 34(7)： 129-136．
[7]	王怀斌，胡芳，刘伊雯．计及碳收益的光伏发电平价上网可行性研究[J]．价格理论与实践， 2022(6)： 43-47．
	WANG H B， HU F， LIU Y W ． Feasibility analysis of photovoltaic power to grid parity with carbon revenues[J]． Price (Theory & Practice)， 2022(6)： 43-47．
[8]	马庆虎，马超．平价上网时代下光伏电站的设计优化研究[J]．太阳能， 2022(12)： 62-66．
	MA Q H， MA C ． Study on design optimization of PV power station in the era of grid parity[J]． Solar Energy， 2022(12)： 62-66．
[9]	刘孟哲，袁家海．西部集中式光伏跨区平价的经济分析[J]．华北电力大学学报(社会科学版)， 2020(6)：35-46．
	LIU M Z， YUAN J H ． Economic analysis of cross-regional parity of centralized photovoltaics in western China[J]． Journal of North China Electric Power University (Social Sciences)， 2020(6)： 35-46．
[10]	ZHANG M M， ZHANG C， LIU L Y， et al ． Is it time to launch grid parity in the Chinese solar photovoltaic industry？ Evidence from 335 cities[J]． Energy Policy， 2020， 147： 111733． doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111733
[11]	WANG R， HASANEFENDIC S， VON HAUFF E，et al ．The cost of photovoltaics： re-evaluating grid parity for PV systems in China[J]．Renewable Energy，2022，194：469-481． doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.05.101
[12]	SONG Y， LIU T， YE B， et al ． Linking carbon market and electricity market for promoting the grid parity of photovoltaic electricity in China[J]． Energy， 2020， 211： 118924． doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.118924
[13]	ZHANG M， ZHANG Q ． Grid parity analysis of distributed photovoltaic power generation in China[J]． Energy， 2020， 206： 118165． doi:10.1016/j.energy.2020.118165
[14]	TU Q， MO J， BETZ R， et al ． Achieving grid parity of solar PV power in China： the role of tradable green certificate[J]． Energy Policy， 2020， 144： 111681． doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111681
[15]	ZHANG L， DU Q， ZHOU D ． Grid parity analysis of China’s centralized photovoltaic generation under multiple uncertainties[J]． Energies， 2021， 14(7)： 1814． doi:10.3390/en14071814
[16]	吉伦奇，汪晓露．新版“两个细则” 对发电企业的影响及应对策略[J]．中国电力企业管理， 2022(28)：78-79．
	JI L Q， WANG X L ． Influence of the new edition of “two detailed rules” on power generation enterprises and countermeasures[J]． China Power Enterprise Management， 2022(28)： 78-79．
[17]	王玉洁，谭忠富，鞠立伟，等．风-光-储联合参与绿电交易下多主体效益分配模型[J]．电力建设，2023，44(5)：134-140．
	WANG Y J， TAN Z F， JU L W，et al ．Multi-subject benefit distribution model under the union participation of wind-solar-storage in green power transactions[J]．Electric Power Construction，2023，44(5)：134-140．
[18]	王磊，田旭，傅旭，等．风光抽蓄互补系统合理容量效益研究[J]．电网与清洁能源，2023，39(4)：111-117． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.04.015
	WANG L， TIAN X， FU X，et al ．A study on the reasonable capacity benefit of the wind power-PhotovoltaicPumped hydro storage complementary system[J]．Power System and Clean Energy，2023，39(4)：111-117． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.04.015
[19]	王丰．平价上网时代新能源发电的经济性分析和发展趋势[J]．现代企业文化， 2022(21)： 158-160． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-1145.2022.21.xdqywh202221054
	WANG F ． Economic analysis and development trend of new energy power generation in the era of cheap Internet access[J]． Modern Enterprise Culture，2022(21)： 158-160． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-1145.2022.21.xdqywh202221054
[20]	王莎莎． W光伏发电项目建设期投资成本控制研究[D]．西安：西安理工大学， 2020．
	WANG S S ． Research on cost control of construction investment of W photovoltatic power generation project[D]．Xi’an： Xi’an University of Technology， 2020．
[21]	陈皓勇． “双碳” 目标下的电能价值分析与市场机制设计[J]．发电技术， 2021， 42(2)： 141-150．
	CHEN H Y ． Electricity value analysis and market mechanism design under carbon-neutral goal[J]． Power Generation Technology， 2021， 42(2)： 141-150．
[22]	国家发展和改革委员会，建设部．建设项目经济评价方法与参数[M]． 3版．北京：中国计划出版社， 2006．
	National Development and Reform Commission，Ministry of Construction ． Methods and parameters of economic evaluation of construction projects[M]． 3rd ed. Beijing： China Planning Press， 2006．
[23]	吴玲，曾宇峰．敏感性分析中求不确定性因素临界点的一般方法[C]// 中国运筹学会第六届学术交流会论文集(下卷)．长沙， 2000： 71-76．
	WU L， ZENG Y F ． A general method for finding the critical point of uncertain factors in sensitivity analysis[C]//Proceedings of the Sixth Academic Exchange Conference of Operations Research Society of China(Volume Ⅱ)． Changsha， 2000： 71-76．
[24]	徐其春，李良杰，卢泽汉．电网接入光伏发电功率的实时调度与预测研究[J]．电网与清洁能源， 2023， 39(12)： 141-147． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.12.015
	XU Q C， LI L J， LU Z H ． A study on the real-time scheduling and prediction of photovoltaic power connected to the power grid[J]． Power System and Clean Energy， 2023， 39(12)： 141-147． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.12.015
[25]	国家发展和改革委员会，国家能源局．关于做好新能源配套送出工程投资建设有关事项的通知[EB/OL]．(2021-05-31)[2024-01-03]．．
	National Development and Reform Commission，National Energy Administration ．Notice on matters related to investment and construction of new energy supporting transmission projects[EB/OL]．(2021-05-31)[2024-01-03]．．
[26]	刘浩，张晓滨，黄晨曦，等．高渗透率光伏微电网能量优化管理策略的研究[J]．电网与清洁能源， 2023， 39(6)： 129-135． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.06.016
	LIU H， ZHANG X B， HUANG C X， et al ． Research on energy optimization management strategies for high permeability photovoltaic microgrids[J]． Power System and Clean Energy， 2023， 39(6)： 129-135． doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674-3814.2023.06.016
[27]	李兴明．储能技术在光伏电站并网中的应用[J]．现代工业经济和信息化， 2023， 13(2)： 180-181．
	LI X M ． Application of energy storage technology in grid connection of photovoltaic power station[J]． Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization， 2023， 13(2)： 180-181．