Investment Decision and Economic Analysis of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Stations

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.23032

Abstract

Abstract:

Objectives With the continuous advancement of China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry, the industry is transitioning from being heavily reliant on government policy subsidies to achieving grid parity, which places higher demands on the economic benefits of PV power stations. Consequently, a more comprehensive and detailed study on the investment decision and economic evaluation of photovoltaic power stations is conducted. Methods Investment decision guidance for a 4.45 MW distributed PV power station project is provided from multiple aspects, including site solar resource analysis, solar module selection, and inverter selection. By calculating the construction investment and revenue, economic analysis of the project is conducted, and the effects of construction investment, operating costs, power generation price, and power generation output on the project’s economics are studied. Results The economic analysis reveals that the project achieves an after-tax financial internal rate of return (FIRR) of 7.43%, with an after-tax investment payback period of 11.39^{a. For equity capital, the FIRR is 11.43%, and the payback period is 10.38^{a. Conclusions The project offers favorable economic benefits and the project economics is most sensitive to changes in electricity prices. Furthermore, the project demonstrates strong resilience to risks. The research results can provide theoretical reference and engineering guidance for the research and application of PV projects.}}

Key words: photovoltaic power generation, distributed photovoltaic, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, investment cost, investment decision, economic analysis, sensitivity analysis, internal rate of return

CLC Number:

TK 51

Chizhong WANG, Xin GAO, Heng CHEN, Guoqiang ZHANG, Kai ZHANG. Investment Decision and Economic Analysis of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Stations[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2025, 46(3): 607-616.

Figures/Tables 16

References 35

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月份	太阳能辐射量	月份	太阳能辐射量
1	193.1	7	620.6
2	216.3	8	552.9
3	267.8	9	410.6
4	330.2	10	332.1
5	427.3	11	266.4
6	443.9	12	230.2

月份	太阳能辐射量	月份	太阳能辐射量
1	193.1	7	620.6
2	216.3	8	552.9
3	267.8	9	410.6
4	330.2	10	332.1
5	427.3	11	266.4
6	443.9	12	230.2

等级	年辐射总量/(MJ/m²)	平均日辐射量/(kW⋅h/m²)
极丰富带(Ⅰ)	≥6 300	≥ 4.8
很丰富带(Ⅱ)	5 040~6 300	3.8~4.8
丰富带(Ⅲ)	3 780~5 040	2.9~3.8
一般丰富带(Ⅳ)	< 3 780	< 2.9

等级	年辐射总量/(MJ/m²)	平均日辐射量/(kW⋅h/m²)
极丰富带(Ⅰ)	≥6 300	≥ 4.8
很丰富带(Ⅱ)	5 040~6 300	3.8~4.8
丰富带(Ⅲ)	3 780~5 040	2.9~3.8
一般丰富带(Ⅳ)	< 3 780	< 2.9

指标	单晶硅	多晶硅
目前应用范围	中央发电系统、独立电源、民用消费品市场	中央发电系统
商用效率/%	17.0~24.0	14.0~20.5
实验效率/%	25	21
使用寿命/a	25	25
能力偿还时间/a	2~3	2~3
生产成本	高	较高
优点	效率高、技术成熟	效率较高