电力系统受极端天气的影响分析及其适应策略

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.21059

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化对人类社会的影响越来越受关注，随之而来的一系列极端天气引发系统断电的风险也越来越显著。为应对气候变化尤其是极端天气，人类社会需采取减缓和适应2种应对策略，对于发展中国家与小岛国，由于气候变化已经发生，因此气候问题将首先是适应问题。为解决电力系统如何从各个环节完整地适应气候变化问题，建立了一个适应气候变化的电力系统发展体系，提出一种涵盖极端气象因素的电力系统发展路径构建方法。在总结各种极端天气对电力系统影响的基础上，对电网的脆弱性进行评价；研究了适应极端天气的总体策略，并提出电力系统适应极端天气事件的方案，即规划–建设–应急管理–评估（planning-construction-emergency management-assessment，PCEA）抗灾体系。在规划阶段重点进行保底电网规划，构建不停电最小电网主干网；基于方案不同阶段的应用实例，验证了PCEA体系可以促使电力系统更好地适应极端天气。

关键词: 电力系统, 气候变化, 极端天气, 保底电网规划, 不停电最小电网主干网

Abstract:

The impact of climate change on human society has attracted more and more attention, and the risk of power outage caused by a series of extreme weather is becoming more and more significant. In order to deal with climate change, especially extreme weather, human society needs to adopt two coping strategies of mitigation and adaptation. For the developing countries and small island countries, since climate change has already taken place, the climate problem will first be adaptation. In order to solve the problem of how the power system can fully adapt to climate change from all aspects, a power system development system adapted to climate change was established, and a construction method of power system development path covering extreme meteorological factors was proposed. On the basis of summarizing the impacts of various extreme weather on the power system, the vulnerability of power grid was evaluated. The overall strategy of adapting to extreme weather was studied, and the scheme of power system adapting to extreme weather events was proposed, namely planning-construction-emergency management-assessment (PCEA) disaster resistance system. In the planning stage, the study focused on the minimum power grid planning and built the minimum power grid backbone network without power outage. Based on the application examples in different stages of the scheme, it was verified that the PCEA system can make the power system better adapt to the extreme weather.

Key words: power system, climate change, extreme weather, minimum power grid planning, minimum power grid backbone network without power outage

中图分类号:

TM71

卢赓, 邓婧, 王渝红, 曹静, 岳云峰. 电力系统受极端天气的影响分析及其适应策略[J]. 发电技术, 2021, 42(6): 751-764.

Geng LU, Jing DENG, Yuhong WANG, Jing CAO, Yunfeng YUE. Analysis of Power System Affected by Extreme Weather and Its Adaptive Strategy[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2021, 42(6): 751-764.

图/表 15

图1 全球海洋表面和陆地平均温度趋势

Fig.1 Mean temperature trends of global ocean surface and land

图2 亚洲陆地区域的温度预测

Fig.2 Temperature prediction in Asian land area

图3 1970—2014年按类型分列的全球自然灾害频次

Fig.3 Global natural disaster frequency by type from 1970 to 2014

图4 1949—2016年中国热带气旋登陆次数和频率

Fig.4 Landing times and frequency of tropical cyclones in China from 1949 to 2016

图5 中国1950—2010年暴雨洪涝灾害灾情变化

Fig.5 Changes of rainstorm and flood disasters in China from 1950 to 2010

图6 电力系统适应策略图

Fig.6 Power system adaptation strategy chart

图7 某台风经常侵袭的沿海城市保底电网规划

Fig.7 Minimum power grid planning for a coastal city frequently attacked by typhoon

图8 某台风较少的城市保底电网规划

Fig.8 Minimum power grid planning for a city with few typhoon

图9 单导线技术应用方案

Fig.9 Application scheme of single conductor technology

表1 某城市500 kV输电线路防风改造方案对比

Tab. 1 Comparison of wind protection retrofit schemes for 500 kV transmission lines in a city

现抗台风能力		改造后抗台风级(风速)
风级(风速)	输电线路占比/%	方案1	方案2(推荐方案)
13级下限(33.0~35.0 m/s)	7.3	16级中限(47.7~50.0 m/s)	15级上限(45.4~47.7 m/s)
13级中限(35.0~37.0 m/s)	14.7
14级下限(37.0~39.1 m/s)	72.0
14级中限(39.1~42.0 m/s)	6.0
改造工程投资/新建工程投资		53.4%	43.1%

表2 某城市110~220 kV输电线路防风改造方案对比

Tab. 2 Comparison of wind protection retrofit schemes for 110~220 kV transmission lines in a city

现抗台风能力		改造后抗台风级(风速)
风级(风速)	输电线路占比/%	方案1	方案2(推荐方案)
13级下限(33.0~35.0 m/s)	4.5	15级上限(45.4~47.7 m/s)	15级下限(41.3~43.3 m/s)
13级中限(35.0~37.0 m/s)	38.7
14级下限(37.0~39.1 m/s)	50.3
14级中限(39.1~42.0 m/s)	6.5
改造工程投资/新建工程投资		44.1%	34.1%

图10 抗灾体系评估和思路

Fig.10 Evaluation and thinking of disaster resistance system

图11 2014—2016年用户平均停电时间

Fig.11 Average outage time of customers from 2014 to 2016

表3 2014—2016年恢复供电时间

Tab. 3 Power supply restored time in 2014-2016

项目	2014年	2015年	2016年
城区恢复供电平均时间/h	4	1.78	1.77
农村恢复供电平均时间/h	5	2.49	2.49

图12 电网网架结构改善对比

Fig.12 Comparison of improvement of grid structure

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