2021年我国电力供需形势分析及展望

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.21103

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

影响我国电力供需的不确定因素日益增多，研判2021年电力供需形势对于保障我国经济社会平稳健康发展具有重要意义。为此，梳理了影响2021年我国电力需求、电力供应的主要因素，从国际经济、国内经济、重点行业、气候气温、电能替代等方面分析了对电力供需的影响；对2021年我国经济走势、电力需求、电力供应进行了预测，并在此基础上综合研判全国及各区域电力供需形势。预计2021年我国全社会用电量将达到8.22万亿kW·h，增速显著反弹；2021年底，全国发电装机容量将达到23.7亿kW，其中新能源装机占比有望超过1/4；2021年我国电力供需形势总体平衡，华中等部分地区用电高峰时段可能存在电力供需紧张。

关键词: 电力需求, 电力供应, 电力供需形势

Abstract:

There are more and more uncertain factors affecting the power supply and demand situation in China. Studying and judging the power supply and demand situation in 2021 is of great significance to ensure the stable and healthy development of China's economy and society. Therefore, this paper combed the main factors affecting China's power demand and power supply in 2021, and analyzed the impact on power supply and demand from the aspects of international economy, domestic economy, key industries, climate and temperature, and power substitution. The economic trend, power demand and power supply of China in 2021 were forecasted, and on this basis, the national and regional power supply and demand situation were comprehensively studied and judged. It is estimated that the power consumption of the whole society in China will reach 8.22 trillion kW·h in 2021, and the growth rate will rebound significantly. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of power generation in China is expected to reach 2.37 billion kW, of which the installed capacity of new energy is expected to account for more than 1/4. Moreover, the power supply and demand situation of China will be generally balanced in 2021, and there may be power supply and demand tension during peak hours in Central China and other regions.

Key words: power demand, power supply, power supply and demand situation

中图分类号:

TK01

汲国强, 吴姗姗, 谭显东, 单葆国. 2021年我国电力供需形势分析及展望[J]. 发电技术, 2021, 42(5): 568-575.

Guoqiang JI, Shanshan WU, Xiandong TAN, Baoguo SHAN. Analysis and Prospect of China's Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2021[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2021, 42(5): 568-575.

图/表 7

表1 2021年我国经济预测

Tab. 1 China's economic forecast in 2021 %

项目	2020年	2021年
项目	2020年	低方案	中方案	高方案
GDP增速	2.3	8.0	8.5	9.0
第一产业增速	3.0	3.2	3.6	4.0
第二产业增速	2.6	7.5	8.0	8.5
第三产业增速	2.1	9.0	9.5	10.0
固定资产投资增速	2.9	7.0	7.5	8.0
社会消费品零售总额增速	−3.9	14.0	15.0	16.0
出口增速	4.0	10.0	14.0	17.0

表2 2021年我国用电量预测

Tab. 2 China's power consumption forecast in 2021

项目	2020年用电量增速/%	2021年用电量及其增速预测
		低方案		中方案(推荐方案)		高方案
		用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%	用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%	用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%
全社会	3.1	81 495	8.5	82 246	9.5	83 010	10.5
第一产业	10.2	927	7.9	935	8.9	944	9.9
第二产业	2.5	54 996	7.4	55 508	8.4	55 918	9.2
第三产业	1.9	14 229	17.7	14 349	18.7	14 531	20.2
居民生活	6.9	11 343	3.6	11 453	4.6	11 617	6.1

图1 2020—2021年用电量分季度走势

Fig.1 Quarterly trend of power consumption from 2020 to 2021

图2 2020、2021年各区域用电量增速

Fig.2 Growth rate of regional power consumption in 2020 and 2021

图3 2021年新投产发电装机结构预测

Fig.3 Prediction of newly put into operation power generation structure in 2021

图4 2021年底发电装机结构预测

Fig.4 Prediction of structure of power generation by the end of 2021

图5 2020、2021年发电设备利用时间对比

Fig.5 Comparison of utilization hours of power generation equipment in 2020 and 2021

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