Abstract:

Nowadays, China is steadily promoting the reform of the electricity market. Direct power purchase by large consumers, which has the characteristics of large participation of renewable energy and huge trading power, has a very important impact on the stability of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out an effective risk assessment method on the bilateral user transactions of supply and demand side, and to reasonably control the risk factors that have greater risk. Direct power purchase by large consumers involve both sides of supply and demand and many possible risk factors. The risk assessment index system was constructed from five aspects and the corresponding 17 second-level evaluation indexes were established as analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to evaluate the risk. In addition, after rating the risk factors, the weights were determined and the consistency was verified. The results show that AHP can balance the subjective and objective factors and determine the relative weight of each evaluation index. It can also calculate the subordination degree of risk index to each level of risk level and achieve the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis so that the result of risk assessment is more scientific and accurate.

Key words: direct power purchase, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process (AHP)