Analysis and Prospect of China's Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2021

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.21103

Abstract

Abstract:

There are more and more uncertain factors affecting the power supply and demand situation in China. Studying and judging the power supply and demand situation in 2021 is of great significance to ensure the stable and healthy development of China's economy and society. Therefore, this paper combed the main factors affecting China's power demand and power supply in 2021, and analyzed the impact on power supply and demand from the aspects of international economy, domestic economy, key industries, climate and temperature, and power substitution. The economic trend, power demand and power supply of China in 2021 were forecasted, and on this basis, the national and regional power supply and demand situation were comprehensively studied and judged. It is estimated that the power consumption of the whole society in China will reach 8.22 trillion kW·h in 2021, and the growth rate will rebound significantly. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of power generation in China is expected to reach 2.37 billion kW, of which the installed capacity of new energy is expected to account for more than 1/4. Moreover, the power supply and demand situation of China will be generally balanced in 2021, and there may be power supply and demand tension during peak hours in Central China and other regions.

Key words: power demand, power supply, power supply and demand situation

CLC Number:

TK01

Guoqiang JI, Shanshan WU, Xiandong TAN, Baoguo SHAN. Analysis and Prospect of China's Power Supply and Demand Situation in 2021[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2021, 42(5): 568-575.

Figures/Tables 7

References 23

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项目	2020年	2021年
项目	2020年	低方案	中方案	高方案
GDP增速	2.3	8.0	8.5	9.0
第一产业增速	3.0	3.2	3.6	4.0
第二产业增速	2.6	7.5	8.0	8.5
第三产业增速	2.1	9.0	9.5	10.0
固定资产投资增速	2.9	7.0	7.5	8.0
社会消费品零售总额增速	−3.9	14.0	15.0	16.0
出口增速	4.0	10.0	14.0	17.0

项目	2020年	2021年
项目	2020年	低方案	中方案	高方案
GDP增速	2.3	8.0	8.5	9.0
第一产业增速	3.0	3.2	3.6	4.0
第二产业增速	2.6	7.5	8.0	8.5
第三产业增速	2.1	9.0	9.5	10.0
固定资产投资增速	2.9	7.0	7.5	8.0
社会消费品零售总额增速	−3.9	14.0	15.0	16.0
出口增速	4.0	10.0	14.0	17.0

项目	2020年用电量增速/%	2021年用电量及其增速预测
		低方案		中方案(推荐方案)		高方案
		用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%	用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%	用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%
全社会	3.1	81 495	8.5	82 246	9.5	83 010	10.5
第一产业	10.2	927	7.9	935	8.9	944	9.9
第二产业	2.5	54 996	7.4	55 508	8.4	55 918	9.2
第三产业	1.9	14 229	17.7	14 349	18.7	14 531	20.2
居民生活	6.9	11 343	3.6	11 453	4.6	11 617	6.1

项目	2020年用电量增速/%	2021年用电量及其增速预测
		低方案		中方案(推荐方案)		高方案
		用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%	用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%	用电量/(亿kW·h)	增速/%
全社会	3.1	81 495	8.5	82 246	9.5	83 010	10.5
第一产业	10.2	927	7.9	935	8.9	944	9.9
第二产业	2.5	54 996	7.4	55 508	8.4	55 918	9.2
第三产业	1.9	14 229	17.7	14 349	18.7	14 531	20.2
居民生活	6.9	11 343	3.6	11 453	4.6	11 617	6.1

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