关键词:

"> 海上风电；不确定性；多时间尺度；非预期性；演化调度

Abstract:

[Objectives] Combining offshore wind power with multiple energy storage systems has become a key approach to enhancing operational flexibility, particularly in mitigating uncertainties across multiple time scales. To fully leverage historical data and improve multi-scale dispatchability, this paper proposes an evolutionary dispatch method for offshore wind power that accounts for multi-timescale non-anticipativity. [Methods] First, a data-driven scenario probability distribution model is developed to characterize seasonal and intra-day uncertainties in wind generation and load demand. Second, a hybrid storage coordination model integrating hydrogen and electrochemical storage is established to enable both seasonal energy shifting and fast power regulation. Finally, a three-layer framework pre-scheduling generation, control evolution, and real-time scheduling is designed, to dynamically link long-term planning with short-term operations. [Results] Case studies using Belgian Elia system data demonstrate that the proposed method significantly enhances power supply flexibility and reduces load loss while satisfying non-anticipativity constraints. [Conclusions] The findings provide theoretical and methodological support for long-term operation simulation and scheduling optimization in high-renewable power systems.

Key words:

offshore wind power, uncertainty; multi-timescale, non-anticipativity, evolutionary dispatch