新疆能耗双控向碳排放双控转变分析和预测
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李昌陵, 常喜强, 卢浩
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Analysis and Forecast of the Shift From Double Control of Energy Consumption to Double Control of Carbon Emissions in Xinjiang
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Changling LI, Xiqiang CHANG, Hao LU
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表1 重点行业电价承载能力
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Tab. 1 Carrying capacity of electricity prices in key sectors
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| 类别 | 电解铝 | 钢铁 | 多晶硅 | 煤制烯烃 | 再生铝 | 番茄加工 |
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| 产品终端价格/(元/t) | 14 450 | 3 677 | 55 000 | 8 200 | 19 000 | 6 000 | | 产品原料成本/(元/t) | 5 495 | 2 015 | 22 000 | 1 604.7 | 10 000 | 500 | | 产品用电成本/(元/t) | 4 495.5 | 500.0 | 21 645.0 | 432.9 | 216.0 | 60.0 | | 产品总成本/(元/t) | 11 700 | 2 792 | 44 300 | 6 210 | 15 000 | 4 800 | | 税金及附加比重/% | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | | 各项期间费用比重/% | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | | 最低利润率/% | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | | 产品价格涨幅/% | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | | 原材料价格涨幅/% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | 电价/[元/(kW⋅h)] | 0.347 9 | 0.347 9 | 0.347 9 | 0.347 9 | 0.347 9 | 0.347 9 | | 产品利润率/% | 9.52 | 12.03 | 9.73 | 12.13 | 10.53 | 10.00 | | 利润率对售价敏感度 | 0.626 2 | 0.000 2 | 0.164 1 | 0.000 1 | 0.470 9 | 0.000 2 | | 利润率对原料敏感度 | -0.380 | -0.548 | -0.400 | -0.196 | -0.526 | -0.083 | | 利润率对电价敏感度 | -0.311 1 | -0.136 0 | -0.393 5 | -0.052 8 | -0.011 4 | -0.010 0 | | 电价承受力/% | 0.74 | 19.17 | 1.08 | 57.96 | 97.22 | 101.67 | | 最高电价/[元/(kW⋅h)] | 0.350 | 0.415 | 0.352 | 0.550 | 0.686 | 0.702 |
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