基于事件树连锁故障推演和证据推理的制氢站设备风险评价

刘玉成, 杨源, 胡宇浩, 李雨航, 赵子泰, 马志勇, 董玉亮

Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Production Station Equipment Based on Event Tree Cascading Fault Deduction and Evidential Reasoning

Yucheng LIU, Yuan YANG, Yuhao HU, Yuhang LI, Zitai ZHAO, Zhiyong MA, Yuliang DONG

表3 制氢站设备遭受外部攻击连锁故障后果事件发生概率

Tab. 3 Probability of occurrence of cascading failure consequences from external attack on hydrogen production station equipment

事件后果 制氢站设备 电解槽 氢除湿器 氢分离洗涤器 储氢罐 氢气管道 氢气泄漏扩散 0.050 40 0.080 784 0 0.090 480 0.038 850 0.044 640 氢气泄漏火灾事故 0.302 28 0.552 948 8 0.515 411 0.368 263 0.545 228 氢气泄漏爆炸事故 0.247 32 0.046 267 2 0.292 887 0.292 887 0.030 132