发电技术 ›› 2019, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 426-433.DOI: 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19108

• 新能源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于长短期记忆神经网络的风力发电功率预测方法

李相俊(),许格健   

  • 收稿日期:2019-07-16 出版日期:2019-10-30 发布日期:2019-11-05
  • 作者简介:李相俊(1979),男,博士,教授级高级工程师,研究方向为大规模储能技术、新能源与分布式发电、电力系统运行与控制, li_xiangjun@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网公司科技项目(DG71-19-015)

Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Long Short-term Memory Neural Network

Xiangjun LI(),Gejian XU   

  • Received:2019-07-16 Published:2019-10-30 Online:2019-11-05
  • Supported by:
    Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(DG71-19-015)

摘要:

风力发电过程具有较强的随机性,导致风力发电功率的预测准确度不高。针对上述问题,提出了一种融合深度学习算法的风力发电功率预测方法。以历史风力发电功率数据作为输入,建立风力发电功率预测模型,实现对未来一个时间刻度的风力发电功率预测。算例结果表明,与传统时序预测方法相比,基于长短期记忆神经网络的风力发电功率预测结果在各项指标中误差更小,验证了上述方法在风力发电功率预测中的可行性和有效性,提升了风力发电功率预测的准确性。

关键词: 深度学习, 时序预测, 风力发电, 长短期记忆神经网络

Abstract:

Wind power generation process has strong randomness, which leads to low accuracy of wind power prediction. In view of the above phenomenon, a wind power generation power prediction method based on deep learning algorithm was proposed. Taking the historical wind power data as input, a wind power prediction model was established to realize the wind power prediction on a time scale in the future. The results of the example show that compared with the traditional time-series prediction method, the average absolute error of the wind power prediction results based on long short-term memory neural network is smaller in each index, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the above method in wind power generation prediction, and improves the accuracy of wind power generation prediction.

Key words: deep learning, time-series prediction, wind power generation, long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network